Quantifying the trend of vegetation changes using remote sensing (Case study: Fars Province)

Investigating the sustainability of vegetation changes is one of the most important issues of vegetation management in the direction of sustainable development. It is necessary to conduct studies in this regard to select appropriate management for greater compatibility with new conditions. In this research, changes in the vegetation dynamics trend of Fars province were studied using the NDVI index obtained from MOD13Q1 during the period 2001 to 2017. Mann-Kendall and Thiel-Sen tests in the Earth Trends Modeler of TerrSet software and the Hurst index in the ArcGIS software were calculated, then the results were combined with each other. Theil-Sen trend for statistical analysis of the changes slope, and Mann-Kendall test to determine the significance of these changes are a new approach to investigate the analysis process of NDVI time series data. Overlaying the results of the trend analysis and Hurst index, the future sustainability in the NDVI changes was calculated. According to analysis of the Horst index, the trend of vegetation changes in the future is contrary to the changes that have taken place in the past.. In addition, the results of total trend analysis indicate that plant growth in mountainous areas continuously improves at a higher rate than the plains. Finally, the results of analyzing the Horst index and the process of vegetation changes showed that the highest number of pixels is for the month of May with 41.1% located in Class B. Class B represents that the rehabilitation trend has replaced the degradation trend in the region  and this trend will not continue in the future. This month, the northern and southern strips of the province have a maximum value.